Darren Waller vs Mike Gesicki
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Mike Gesicki this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.2 projected points (10.1 vs 7.9).
Mike Gesicki faces JAX, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Darren Waller faces MIN, the 31st-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Darren Waller ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Darren Waller by 2.2 points of value over replacement (-44.4 vs -46.6), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Darren WallerMIA | Mike GesickiCIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | MIN | JAX | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 7.9 | 10.1 | Gesicki +2.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #31 | #3 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 153.1 | 150.9 | Waller +2.2 pts |
| Points per game | 9.0 | 8.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -44.4 | -46.6 | Waller +2.2 |
| Overall rank | #119 | #124 | Waller by 5 |
| Position rank | TE15 | TE16 | |
| Market ADP | - | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | - | |
| Bye week | 6 | 6 |
Should I start Darren Waller or Mike Gesicki in Week 4?
Start Mike Gesicki this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.2 projected points (10.1 vs 7.9).
Should I draft Darren Waller or Mike Gesicki in 2026 fantasy football?
Darren Waller. He projects 153.1 fantasy points with -44.4 value over replacement, vs 150.9 points and -46.6 for Mike Gesicki (TE, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.