Bo Nix vs Lamar Jackson
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Lamar Jackson by 0.5 projected points (14.4 vs 14.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Lamar Jackson faces ATL, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Bo Nix faces LAC, the 27th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Bo Nix ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Bo Nix by 1.4 points of value over replacement (-32.8 vs -34.1), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Lamar Jackson first (ADP 54.6 vs 109.6). If the model is right, Bo Nix is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Lamar Jackson carries an injury flag of Questionable (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Bo NixDEN | Lamar JacksonBAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | LAC | ATL | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 14.0 | 14.4 | Jackson +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #27 | #22 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 252.5 | 251.1 | Nix +1.4 pts |
| Points per game | 14.9 | 14.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -32.8 | -34.1 | Nix +1.4 |
| Overall rank | #109 | #114 | Nix by 5 |
| Position rank | QB18 | QB21 | |
| Market ADP | 109.6 | 54.6 | Nix +55.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 10 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 13 | |
| Injury flag | None | Questionable |
Should I start Bo Nix or Lamar Jackson in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Lamar Jackson by 0.5 projected points (14.4 vs 14.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Bo Nix or Lamar Jackson in 2026 fantasy football?
Bo Nix. He projects 252.5 fantasy points with -32.8 value over replacement, vs 251.1 points and -34.1 for Lamar Jackson (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.