Aaron Rodgers vs Bo Nix
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Aaron Rodgers this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (15.4 vs 14.0).
Aaron Rodgers faces IND, the 19th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Bo Nix faces LAC, the 27th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Aaron Rodgers: a clear but modest edge of 11.2 points of value over replacement (-21.6 vs -32.8).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Bo Nix first (ADP 109.6 vs 183.1). If the model is right, Aaron Rodgers is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Aaron RodgersPIT | Bo NixDEN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | IND | LAC | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 15.4 | 14.0 | Rodgers +1.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #19 | #27 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 263.7 | 252.5 | Rodgers +11.2 pts |
| Points per game | 15.5 | 14.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -21.6 | -32.8 | Rodgers +11.2 |
| Overall rank | #93 | #109 | Rodgers by 16 |
| Position rank | QB16 | QB18 | |
| Market ADP | 183.1 | 109.6 | Rodgers +73.5 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 16 | Rd 10 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 10 |
Should I start Aaron Rodgers or Bo Nix in Week 5?
Start Aaron Rodgers this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (15.4 vs 14.0).
Should I draft Aaron Rodgers or Bo Nix in 2026 fantasy football?
Aaron Rodgers. He projects 263.7 fantasy points with -21.6 value over replacement, vs 252.5 points and -32.8 for Bo Nix (QB, PPR).