C.J. Stroud vs Aaron Rodgers
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Aaron Rodgers by 0.5 projected points (15.4 vs 14.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Aaron Rodgers faces IND, the 19th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. C.J. Stroud faces TEN, the 24th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks C.J. Stroud ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans C.J. Stroud by 1.2 points of value over replacement (-20.4 vs -21.6), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: C.J. Stroud goes first at ADP 155.7 vs 183.1 for Aaron Rodgers.
| C.J. StroudHOU | Aaron RodgersPIT | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | TEN | IND | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 14.9 | 15.4 | Rodgers +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #24 | #19 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 264.9 | 263.7 | Stroud +1.2 pts |
| Points per game | 15.6 | 15.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -20.4 | -21.6 | Stroud +1.2 |
| Overall rank | #92 | #93 | Stroud by 1 |
| Position rank | QB15 | QB16 | |
| Market ADP | 155.7 | 183.1 | Rodgers +27.4 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 16 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 9 |
Should I start C.J. Stroud or Aaron Rodgers in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Aaron Rodgers by 0.5 projected points (15.4 vs 14.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft C.J. Stroud or Aaron Rodgers in 2026 fantasy football?
C.J. Stroud. He projects 264.9 fantasy points with -20.4 value over replacement, vs 263.7 points and -21.6 for Aaron Rodgers (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.