C.J. Stroud vs Jaxson Dart
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Jaxson Dart this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.3 projected points (16.2 vs 14.9).
Jaxson Dart faces WAS, the 7th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. C.J. Stroud faces TEN, the 24th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks C.J. Stroud ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes C.J. Stroud: a clear but modest edge of 7.4 points of value over replacement (-20.4 vs -27.7).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Jaxson Dart first (ADP 118.2 vs 155.7). If the model is right, C.J. Stroud is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Jaxson Dart carries an injury flag of IR (Knee - Meniscus), which is already reflected in his projection.
| C.J. StroudHOU | Jaxson DartNYG | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | TEN | WAS | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 14.9 | 16.2 | Dart +1.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #24 | #7 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 264.9 | 257.5 | Stroud +7.4 pts |
| Points per game | 15.6 | 15.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -20.4 | -27.7 | Stroud +7.4 |
| Overall rank | #92 | #103 | Stroud by 11 |
| Position rank | QB15 | QB17 | |
| Market ADP | 155.7 | 118.2 | Stroud +37.5 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 10 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 8 | |
| Injury flag | None | IR |
Should I start C.J. Stroud or Jaxson Dart in Week 5?
Start Jaxson Dart this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.3 projected points (16.2 vs 14.9).
Should I draft C.J. Stroud or Jaxson Dart in 2026 fantasy football?
C.J. Stroud. He projects 264.9 fantasy points with -20.4 value over replacement, vs 257.5 points and -27.7 for Jaxson Dart (QB, PPR).