Aaron Rodgers vs Jalen Hurts
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Aaron Rodgers by 0.5 projected points (15.4 vs 14.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Aaron Rodgers faces IND, the 19th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Jalen Hurts faces JAX, the 17th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Aaron Rodgers: a clear but modest edge of 11.3 points of value over replacement (-21.6 vs -32.9).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Jalen Hurts first (ADP 75.9 vs 183.1). If the model is right, Aaron Rodgers is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Aaron RodgersPIT | Jalen HurtsPHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | IND | JAX | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 15.4 | 14.9 | Rodgers +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #19 | #17 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 263.7 | 252.4 | Rodgers +11.3 pts |
| Points per game | 15.5 | 14.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -21.6 | -32.9 | Rodgers +11.3 |
| Overall rank | #93 | #110 | Rodgers by 17 |
| Position rank | QB16 | QB19 | |
| Market ADP | 183.1 | 75.9 | Rodgers +107.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 16 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 10 |
Should I start Aaron Rodgers or Jalen Hurts in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Aaron Rodgers by 0.5 projected points (15.4 vs 14.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Aaron Rodgers or Jalen Hurts in 2026 fantasy football?
Aaron Rodgers. He projects 263.7 fantasy points with -21.6 value over replacement, vs 252.4 points and -32.9 for Jalen Hurts (QB, PPR).