Aaron Rodgers vs Jaxson Dart
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jaxson Dart by 0.8 projected points (16.2 vs 15.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jaxson Dart faces WAS, the 7th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Aaron Rodgers faces IND, the 19th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Aaron Rodgers ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Aaron Rodgers: a clear but modest edge of 6.2 points of value over replacement (-21.6 vs -27.7).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Jaxson Dart first (ADP 118.2 vs 183.1). If the model is right, Aaron Rodgers is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Jaxson Dart carries an injury flag of IR (Knee - Meniscus), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Aaron RodgersPIT | Jaxson DartNYG | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | IND | WAS | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 15.4 | 16.2 | Dart +0.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #19 | #7 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 263.7 | 257.5 | Rodgers +6.2 pts |
| Points per game | 15.5 | 15.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -21.6 | -27.7 | Rodgers +6.2 |
| Overall rank | #93 | #103 | Rodgers by 10 |
| Position rank | QB16 | QB17 | |
| Market ADP | 183.1 | 118.2 | Rodgers +64.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 16 | Rd 10 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 8 | |
| Injury flag | None | IR |
Should I start Aaron Rodgers or Jaxson Dart in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jaxson Dart by 0.8 projected points (16.2 vs 15.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Aaron Rodgers or Jaxson Dart in 2026 fantasy football?
Aaron Rodgers. He projects 263.7 fantasy points with -21.6 value over replacement, vs 257.5 points and -27.7 for Jaxson Dart (QB, PPR).