Bo Nix vs Drake Maye
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Drake Maye this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.6 projected points (15.6 vs 14.0).
Drake Maye faces LV, the 9th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Bo Nix faces LAC, the 27th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Bo Nix ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Bo Nix by 0.2 points of value over replacement (-32.8 vs -33.0), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Drake Maye first (ADP 51.8 vs 109.6). If the model is right, Bo Nix is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Bo NixDEN | Drake MayeNWE | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | LAC | LV | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 14.0 | 15.6 | Maye +1.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #27 | #9 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 252.5 | 252.2 | Nix +0.2 pts |
| Points per game | 14.9 | 14.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -32.8 | -33.0 | Nix +0.2 |
| Overall rank | #109 | #111 | Nix by 2 |
| Position rank | QB18 | QB20 | |
| Market ADP | 109.6 | 51.8 | Nix +57.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 10 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 11 |
Should I start Bo Nix or Drake Maye in Week 5?
Start Drake Maye this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.6 projected points (15.6 vs 14.0).
Should I draft Bo Nix or Drake Maye in 2026 fantasy football?
Bo Nix. He projects 252.5 fantasy points with -32.8 value over replacement, vs 252.2 points and -33.0 for Drake Maye (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.