Justin Herbert vs Bo Nix
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Bo Nix by 0.6 projected points (14.4 vs 13.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Bo Nix faces LA, the 21st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Justin Herbert faces BUF, the 29th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Justin Herbert ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Justin Herbert, and it isn't close: 18.2 points of value over replacement separate them (0.0 vs -18.2).
The draft market agrees: Justin Herbert goes first at ADP 103.4 vs 109.6 for Bo Nix.
| Justin HerbertLAC | Bo NixDEN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | BUF | LA | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 13.9 | 14.4 | Nix +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #29 | #21 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 272.0 | 253.8 | Herbert +18.2 pts |
| Points per game | 16.0 | 14.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 0.0 | -18.2 | Herbert +18.2 |
| Overall rank | #71 | #96 | Herbert by 25 |
| Position rank | QB12 | QB15 | |
| Market ADP | 103.4 | 109.6 | Nix +6.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 10 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 10 |
Should I start Justin Herbert or Bo Nix in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Bo Nix by 0.6 projected points (14.4 vs 13.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Justin Herbert or Bo Nix in 2026 fantasy football?
Justin Herbert. He projects 272.0 fantasy points with 0.0 value over replacement, vs 253.8 points and -18.2 for Bo Nix (QB, PPR).