Tyler Shough vs Trevor Lawrence
Who should you start in Week 6? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 6
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Tyler Shough by 0.3 projected points (17.4 vs 17.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Tyler Shough faces NYG, the 12th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Trevor Lawrence faces HOU, the 15th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Tyler Shough by 1.9 points of value over replacement (0.0 vs -1.9), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Trevor Lawrence first (ADP 91.1 vs 137.8). If the model is right, Tyler Shough is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Tyler ShoughNOR | Trevor LawrenceJAX | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 opponent | NYG | HOU | |
| Projected Week 6 points | 17.4 | 17.1 | Shough +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 28) | #12 | #15 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 288.6 | 286.6 | Shough +1.9 pts |
| Points per game | 17.0 | 16.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 0.0 | -1.9 | Shough +1.9 |
| Overall rank | #72 | #75 | Shough by 3 |
| Position rank | QB12 | QB13 | |
| Market ADP | 137.8 | 91.1 | Shough +46.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 7 |
Should I start Tyler Shough or Trevor Lawrence in Week 6?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Tyler Shough by 0.3 projected points (17.4 vs 17.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Tyler Shough or Trevor Lawrence in 2026 fantasy football?
Tyler Shough. He projects 288.6 fantasy points with 0.0 value over replacement, vs 286.6 points and -1.9 for Trevor Lawrence (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.