Drake Maye vs Trevor Lawrence
Who should you start in Week 6? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 6
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Drake Maye by 0.5 projected points (17.7 vs 17.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Drake Maye faces NYJ, the 14th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Trevor Lawrence faces HOU, the 15th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Drake Maye: a clear but modest edge of 7.6 points of value over replacement (5.7 vs -1.9).
The draft market agrees: Drake Maye goes first at ADP 51.8 vs 91.1 for Trevor Lawrence.
| Drake MayeNWE | Trevor LawrenceJAX | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 opponent | NYJ | HOU | |
| Projected Week 6 points | 17.7 | 17.1 | Maye +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 28) | #14 | #15 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 294.3 | 286.6 | Maye +7.6 pts |
| Points per game | 17.3 | 16.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 5.7 | -1.9 | Maye +7.6 |
| Overall rank | #64 | #75 | Maye by 11 |
| Position rank | QB10 | QB13 | |
| Market ADP | 51.8 | 91.1 | Lawrence +39.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 7 |
Should I start Drake Maye or Trevor Lawrence in Week 6?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Drake Maye by 0.5 projected points (17.7 vs 17.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Drake Maye or Trevor Lawrence in 2026 fantasy football?
Drake Maye. He projects 294.3 fantasy points with 5.7 value over replacement, vs 286.6 points and -1.9 for Trevor Lawrence (QB, PPR).