Patrick Mahomes vs Drake Maye
Who should you start in Week 6? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 6
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Drake Maye by 0.8 projected points (17.7 vs 16.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Drake Maye faces NYJ, the 14th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Patrick Mahomes faces LAC, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Patrick Mahomes ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 6, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Patrick Mahomes: a clear but modest edge of 6.6 points of value over replacement (12.3 vs 5.7).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Drake Maye first (ADP 51.8 vs 104.0). If the model is right, Patrick Mahomes is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Patrick MahomesKAN | Drake MayeNWE | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 opponent | LAC | NYJ | |
| Projected Week 6 points | 16.8 | 17.7 | Maye +0.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 28) | #22 | #14 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 300.8 | 294.3 | Mahomes +6.6 pts |
| Points per game | 17.7 | 17.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 12.3 | 5.7 | Mahomes +6.6 |
| Overall rank | #57 | #64 | Mahomes by 7 |
| Position rank | QB8 | QB10 | |
| Market ADP | 104.0 | 51.8 | Mahomes +52.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 5 | 11 |
Should I start Patrick Mahomes or Drake Maye in Week 6?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Drake Maye by 0.8 projected points (17.7 vs 16.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Patrick Mahomes or Drake Maye in 2026 fantasy football?
Patrick Mahomes. He projects 300.8 fantasy points with 12.3 value over replacement, vs 294.3 points and 5.7 for Drake Maye (QB, PPR).