Tyler Allgeier vs Ollie Gordon
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Tyler Allgeier by 0.7 projected points (4.4 vs 3.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Tyler Allgeier faces DET, the 23rd-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Ollie Gordon faces CIN, the 26th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Tyler Allgeier: a clear but modest edge of 9.8 points of value over replacement (-59.9 vs -69.7).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
Health note: Ollie Gordon carries an injury flag of Questionable (Undisclosed), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Tyler AllgeierARI | Ollie GordonMIA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | DET | CIN | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 4.4 | 3.7 | Allgeier +0.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #23 | #26 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 76.7 | 66.9 | Allgeier +9.8 pts |
| Points per game | 4.5 | 3.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -59.9 | -69.7 | Allgeier +9.8 |
| Overall rank | #137 | #150 | Allgeier by 13 |
| Position rank | RB44 | RB47 | |
| Market ADP | 154.9 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | - | |
| Bye week | 14 | 6 | |
| Injury flag | None | Questionable |
Should I start Tyler Allgeier or Ollie Gordon in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Tyler Allgeier by 0.7 projected points (4.4 vs 3.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Tyler Allgeier or Ollie Gordon in 2026 fantasy football?
Tyler Allgeier. He projects 76.7 fantasy points with -59.9 value over replacement, vs 66.9 points and -69.7 for Ollie Gordon (RB, PPR).