Tyjae Spears vs Ollie Gordon
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Tyjae Spears by 0.3 projected points (3.9 vs 3.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Tyjae Spears faces HOU, the 30th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Ollie Gordon faces CIN, the 26th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Tyjae Spears: a clear but modest edge of 12.6 points of value over replacement (-60.3 vs -73.0).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Tyjae SpearsTEN | Ollie GordonMIA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | HOU | CIN | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 3.9 | 3.6 | Spears +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #30 | #26 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 76.2 | 63.6 | Spears +12.6 pts |
| Points per game | 4.5 | 3.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -60.3 | -73.0 | Spears +12.6 |
| Overall rank | #138 | #150 | Spears by 12 |
| Position rank | RB45 | RB48 | |
| Market ADP | 129.8 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 11 | - | |
| Bye week | 9 | 6 |
Should I start Tyjae Spears or Ollie Gordon in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Tyjae Spears by 0.3 projected points (3.9 vs 3.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Tyjae Spears or Ollie Gordon in 2026 fantasy football?
Tyjae Spears. He projects 76.2 fantasy points with -60.3 value over replacement, vs 63.6 points and -73.0 for Ollie Gordon (RB, PPR).