Tyjae Spears vs Brian Robinson Jr.
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Brian Robinson Jr. by 0.4 projected points (4.0 vs 3.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Brian Robinson Jr. faces DEN, the 14th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Tyjae Spears faces BAL, the 30th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Tyjae Spears ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Tyjae Spears: a clear but modest edge of 5.4 points of value over replacement (-65.0 vs -70.4).
The draft market agrees: Tyjae Spears goes first at ADP 129.8 vs 161.9 for Brian Robinson Jr..
Health note: Tyjae Spears carries an injury flag of Questionable (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Tyjae SpearsTEN | Brian Robinson Jr.SFO | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | BAL | DEN | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 3.6 | 4.0 | Jr. +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #30 | #14 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 71.6 | 66.2 | Spears +5.4 pts |
| Points per game | 4.2 | 3.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -65.0 | -70.4 | Spears +5.4 |
| Overall rank | #144 | #150 | Spears by 6 |
| Position rank | RB47 | RB48 | |
| Market ADP | 129.8 | 161.9 | Jr. +32.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 11 | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 8 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I start Tyjae Spears or Brian Robinson Jr. in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Brian Robinson Jr. by 0.4 projected points (4.0 vs 3.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Tyjae Spears or Brian Robinson Jr. in 2026 fantasy football?
Tyjae Spears. He projects 71.6 fantasy points with -65.0 value over replacement, vs 66.2 points and -70.4 for Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, PPR).