Tyler Allgeier vs Tyjae Spears
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Tyler Allgeier by 0.3 projected points (4.4 vs 4.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Tyler Allgeier faces DET, the 23rd-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Tyjae Spears faces HOU, the 29th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Tyler Allgeier by 0.5 points of value over replacement (-59.9 vs -60.4), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Tyjae Spears first (ADP 129.8 vs 154.9). If the model is right, Tyler Allgeier is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Tyler AllgeierARI | Tyjae SpearsTEN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | DET | HOU | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 4.4 | 4.1 | Allgeier +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #23 | #29 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 76.7 | 76.1 | Allgeier +0.5 pts |
| Points per game | 4.5 | 4.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -59.9 | -60.4 | Allgeier +0.5 |
| Overall rank | #137 | #138 | Allgeier by 1 |
| Position rank | RB44 | RB45 | |
| Market ADP | 154.9 | 129.8 | Allgeier +25.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 11 | |
| Bye week | 14 | 9 |
Should I start Tyler Allgeier or Tyjae Spears in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Tyler Allgeier by 0.3 projected points (4.4 vs 4.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Tyler Allgeier or Tyjae Spears in 2026 fantasy football?
Tyler Allgeier. He projects 76.7 fantasy points with -59.9 value over replacement, vs 76.1 points and -60.4 for Tyjae Spears (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.