Alvin Kamara vs Tyjae Spears
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Alvin Kamara by 0.3 projected points (4.4 vs 4.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Alvin Kamara faces MIN, the 25th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Tyjae Spears faces HOU, the 29th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Alvin Kamara by 1.2 points of value over replacement (-59.3 vs -60.4), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Tyjae Spears first (ADP 129.8 vs 148.7). If the model is right, Alvin Kamara is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Alvin Kamara carries an injury flag of Questionable (Back), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Alvin KamaraNOR | Tyjae SpearsTEN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | MIN | HOU | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 4.4 | 4.1 | Kamara +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #25 | #29 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 77.3 | 76.1 | Kamara +1.2 pts |
| Points per game | 4.5 | 4.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -59.3 | -60.4 | Kamara +1.2 |
| Overall rank | #137 | #138 | Kamara by 1 |
| Position rank | RB44 | RB45 | |
| Market ADP | 148.7 | 129.8 | Kamara +18.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 11 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 9 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I start Alvin Kamara or Tyjae Spears in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Alvin Kamara by 0.3 projected points (4.4 vs 4.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Alvin Kamara or Tyjae Spears in 2026 fantasy football?
Alvin Kamara. He projects 77.3 fantasy points with -59.3 value over replacement, vs 76.1 points and -60.4 for Tyjae Spears (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.