Woody Marks vs Tyjae Spears
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Woody Marks by 0.5 projected points (4.6 vs 4.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Woody Marks faces TEN, the 21st-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Tyjae Spears faces HOU, the 29th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Woody Marks by 2.3 points of value over replacement (-58.1 vs -60.4), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Tyjae Spears first (ADP 129.8 vs 140.9). If the model is right, Woody Marks is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Woody MarksHOU | Tyjae SpearsTEN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | TEN | HOU | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 4.6 | 4.1 | Marks +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #21 | #29 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 78.5 | 76.1 | Marks +2.3 pts |
| Points per game | 4.6 | 4.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -58.1 | -60.4 | Marks +2.3 |
| Overall rank | #135 | #138 | Marks by 3 |
| Position rank | RB42 | RB45 | |
| Market ADP | 140.9 | 129.8 | Marks +11.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 11 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 9 |
Should I start Woody Marks or Tyjae Spears in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Woody Marks by 0.5 projected points (4.6 vs 4.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Woody Marks or Tyjae Spears in 2026 fantasy football?
Woody Marks. He projects 78.5 fantasy points with -58.1 value over replacement, vs 76.1 points and -60.4 for Tyjae Spears (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.