Alvin Kamara vs Chris Rodriguez
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Chris Rodriguez by 0.1 projected points (4.5 vs 4.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Chris Rodriguez faces PHI, the 11th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Alvin Kamara faces MIN, the 25th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Alvin Kamara ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Alvin Kamara by 2.9 points of value over replacement (-59.3 vs -62.2), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Alvin Kamara goes first at ADP 148.7 vs 156.3 for Chris Rodriguez.
| Alvin KamaraNOR | Chris RodriguezJAX | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | MIN | PHI | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 4.4 | 4.5 | Rodriguez +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #25 | #11 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 77.3 | 74.4 | Kamara +2.9 pts |
| Points per game | 4.5 | 4.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -59.3 | -62.2 | Kamara +2.9 |
| Overall rank | #137 | #139 | Kamara by 2 |
| Position rank | RB44 | RB46 | |
| Market ADP | 148.7 | 156.3 | Rodriguez +7.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 7 |
Should I start Alvin Kamara or Chris Rodriguez in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Chris Rodriguez by 0.1 projected points (4.5 vs 4.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Alvin Kamara or Chris Rodriguez in 2026 fantasy football?
Alvin Kamara. He projects 77.3 fantasy points with -59.3 value over replacement, vs 74.4 points and -62.2 for Chris Rodriguez (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.