Alvin Kamara vs Tyler Allgeier
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Alvin Kamara by 0.7 projected points (4.6 vs 3.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Alvin Kamara faces LV, the 12th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Tyler Allgeier faces SF, the 24th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Alvin Kamara: a clear but modest edge of 6.3 points of value over replacement (-59.4 vs -65.7).
The draft market agrees: Alvin Kamara goes first at ADP 148.7 vs 154.9 for Tyler Allgeier.
| Alvin KamaraNOR | Tyler AllgeierARI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | LV | SF | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 4.6 | 3.9 | Kamara +0.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #12 | #24 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 77.2 | 70.8 | Kamara +6.3 pts |
| Points per game | 4.5 | 4.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -59.4 | -65.7 | Kamara +6.3 |
| Overall rank | #137 | #147 | Kamara by 10 |
| Position rank | RB43 | RB45 | |
| Market ADP | 148.7 | 154.9 | Allgeier +6.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 14 |
Should I start Alvin Kamara or Tyler Allgeier in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Alvin Kamara by 0.7 projected points (4.6 vs 3.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Alvin Kamara or Tyler Allgeier in 2026 fantasy football?
Alvin Kamara. He projects 77.2 fantasy points with -59.4 value over replacement, vs 70.8 points and -65.7 for Tyler Allgeier (RB, PPR).