T.J. Hockenson vs Mike Gesicki
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Gesicki by 0.4 projected points (10.6 vs 10.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Mike Gesicki faces MIA, the 5th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. T.J. Hockenson faces NO, the 10th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks T.J. Hockenson ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans T.J. Hockenson by 4.1 points of value over replacement (-24.5 vs -28.6), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| T.J. HockensonMIN | Mike GesickiCIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | NO | MIA | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 10.2 | 10.6 | Gesicki +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 30) | #10 | #5 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 167.5 | 163.4 | Hockenson +4.1 pts |
| Points per game | 9.9 | 9.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -24.5 | -28.6 | Hockenson +4.1 |
| Overall rank | #99 | #105 | Hockenson by 6 |
| Position rank | TE15 | TE16 | |
| Market ADP | 162.0 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | - | |
| Bye week | 6 | 6 |
Should I start T.J. Hockenson or Mike Gesicki in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Gesicki by 0.4 projected points (10.6 vs 10.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft T.J. Hockenson or Mike Gesicki in 2026 fantasy football?
T.J. Hockenson. He projects 167.5 fantasy points with -24.5 value over replacement, vs 163.4 points and -28.6 for Mike Gesicki (TE, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.