Dalton Kincaid vs T.J. Hockenson
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Dalton Kincaid by 0.8 projected points (11.0 vs 10.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Dalton Kincaid faces LA, the 8th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. T.J. Hockenson faces NO, the 10th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Dalton Kincaid: a clear but modest edge of 10.8 points of value over replacement (-13.7 vs -24.5).
The draft market agrees: Dalton Kincaid goes first at ADP 147.3 vs 162.0 for T.J. Hockenson.
| Dalton KincaidBUF | T.J. HockensonMIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | LA | NO | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 11.0 | 10.2 | Kincaid +0.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 30) | #8 | #10 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 178.3 | 167.5 | Kincaid +10.8 pts |
| Points per game | 10.5 | 9.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -13.7 | -24.5 | Kincaid +10.8 |
| Overall rank | #82 | #99 | Kincaid by 17 |
| Position rank | TE12 | TE15 | |
| Market ADP | 147.3 | 162.0 | Hockenson +14.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 6 |
Should I start Dalton Kincaid or T.J. Hockenson in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Dalton Kincaid by 0.8 projected points (11.0 vs 10.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Dalton Kincaid or T.J. Hockenson in 2026 fantasy football?
Dalton Kincaid. He projects 178.3 fantasy points with -13.7 value over replacement, vs 167.5 points and -24.5 for T.J. Hockenson (TE, PPR).