Michael Pittman Jr. vs Mike Evans
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Evans by 0.0 projected points (9.9 vs 9.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Mike Evans faces SEA, the 4th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Michael Pittman Jr. faces IND, the 7th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Michael Pittman Jr. ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Michael Pittman Jr. by 2.5 points of value over replacement (-20.0 vs -22.4), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Mike Evans first (ADP 57.9 vs 76.6). If the model is right, Michael Pittman Jr. is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Michael Pittman Jr.PIT | Mike EvansSFO | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | IND | SEA | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 9.9 | 9.9 | Even |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 30) | #7 | #4 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 158.0 | 155.6 | Jr. +2.5 pts |
| Points per game | 9.3 | 9.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -20.0 | -22.4 | Jr. +2.5 |
| Overall rank | #96 | #98 | Jr. by 2 |
| Position rank | WR39 | WR40 | |
| Market ADP | 76.6 | 57.9 | Jr. +18.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 8 |
Should I start Michael Pittman Jr. or Mike Evans in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Evans by 0.0 projected points (9.9 vs 9.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Michael Pittman Jr. or Mike Evans in 2026 fantasy football?
Michael Pittman Jr.. He projects 158.0 fantasy points with -20.0 value over replacement, vs 155.6 points and -22.4 for Mike Evans (WR, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.