Michael Pittman Jr. vs Josh Downs
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Josh Downs by 0.6 projected points (9.1 vs 8.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Josh Downs faces HOU, the 10th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Michael Pittman Jr. faces CIN, the 28th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Michael Pittman Jr. ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Michael Pittman Jr.: a clear but modest edge of 9.7 points of value over replacement (-20.4 vs -30.1).
The draft market agrees: Michael Pittman Jr. goes first at ADP 76.6 vs 94.8 for Josh Downs.
| Michael Pittman Jr.PIT | Josh DownsIND | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | CIN | HOU | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 8.5 | 9.1 | Downs +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #28 | #10 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 158.0 | 148.3 | Jr. +9.7 pts |
| Points per game | 9.3 | 8.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -20.4 | -30.1 | Jr. +9.7 |
| Overall rank | #98 | #105 | Jr. by 7 |
| Position rank | WR40 | WR43 | |
| Market ADP | 76.6 | 94.8 | Downs +18.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 13 |
Should I start Michael Pittman Jr. or Josh Downs in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Josh Downs by 0.6 projected points (9.1 vs 8.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Michael Pittman Jr. or Josh Downs in 2026 fantasy football?
Michael Pittman Jr.. He projects 158.0 fantasy points with -20.4 value over replacement, vs 148.3 points and -30.1 for Josh Downs (WR, PPR).