Luther Burden vs Michael Pittman Jr.
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Luther Burden by 0.5 projected points (10.4 vs 9.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Luther Burden faces GB, the 5th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Michael Pittman Jr. faces IND, the 7th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Luther Burden: a clear but modest edge of 6.2 points of value over replacement (-14.2 vs -20.4).
The draft market agrees: Luther Burden goes first at ADP 50.6 vs 76.6 for Michael Pittman Jr..
| Luther BurdenCHI | Michael Pittman Jr.PIT | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | GB | IND | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 10.4 | 9.9 | Burden +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 30) | #5 | #7 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 164.2 | 158.0 | Burden +6.2 pts |
| Points per game | 9.7 | 9.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -14.2 | -20.4 | Burden +6.2 |
| Overall rank | #91 | #96 | Burden by 5 |
| Position rank | WR37 | WR39 | |
| Market ADP | 50.6 | 76.6 | Jr. +26.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 9 |
Should I start Luther Burden or Michael Pittman Jr. in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Luther Burden by 0.5 projected points (10.4 vs 9.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Luther Burden or Michael Pittman Jr. in 2026 fantasy football?
Luther Burden. He projects 164.2 fantasy points with -14.2 value over replacement, vs 158.0 points and -20.4 for Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, PPR).