Luther Burden vs Mike Evans
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Luther Burden by 0.4 projected points (10.3 vs 9.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Luther Burden faces GB, the 5th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Mike Evans faces SEA, the 4th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Luther Burden: a clear but modest edge of 7.9 points of value over replacement (-15.0 vs -22.9).
The draft market agrees: Luther Burden goes first at ADP 50.6 vs 57.9 for Mike Evans.
| Luther BurdenCHI | Mike EvansSFO | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | GB | SEA | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 10.3 | 9.9 | Burden +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 30) | #5 | #4 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 163.4 | 155.6 | Burden +7.9 pts |
| Points per game | 9.6 | 9.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -15.0 | -22.9 | Burden +7.9 |
| Overall rank | #92 | #98 | Burden by 6 |
| Position rank | WR37 | WR40 | |
| Market ADP | 50.6 | 57.9 | Evans +7.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 8 |
Should I start Luther Burden or Mike Evans in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Luther Burden by 0.4 projected points (10.3 vs 9.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Luther Burden or Mike Evans in 2026 fantasy football?
Luther Burden. He projects 163.4 fantasy points with -15.0 value over replacement, vs 155.6 points and -22.9 for Mike Evans (WR, PPR).