Alec Pierce vs Mike Evans
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Alec Pierce by 0.3 projected points (10.0 vs 9.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Alec Pierce faces HOU, the 10th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Mike Evans faces ARI, the 9th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Alec Pierce: a clear but modest edge of 7.1 points of value over replacement (-14.5 vs -21.6).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Mike Evans first (ADP 57.9 vs 69.7). If the model is right, Alec Pierce is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Alec Pierce carries an injury flag of IR (Heel), which is already reflected in his projection.
Health note: Mike Evans carries an injury flag of Questionable (Hip), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Alec PierceIND | Mike EvansSFO | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | HOU | ARI | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 10.0 | 9.7 | Pierce +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #10 | #9 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 162.7 | 155.6 | Pierce +7.1 pts |
| Points per game | 9.6 | 9.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -14.5 | -21.6 | Pierce +7.1 |
| Overall rank | #92 | #98 | Pierce by 6 |
| Position rank | WR37 | WR39 | |
| Market ADP | 69.7 | 57.9 | Pierce +11.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 6 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 8 | |
| Injury flag | IR | Questionable |
Should I start Alec Pierce or Mike Evans in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Alec Pierce by 0.3 projected points (10.0 vs 9.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Alec Pierce or Mike Evans in 2026 fantasy football?
Alec Pierce. He projects 162.7 fantasy points with -14.5 value over replacement, vs 155.6 points and -21.6 for Mike Evans (WR, PPR).