T.J. Hockenson vs Mark Andrews
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mark Andrews by 0.4 projected points (8.4 vs 8.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Mark Andrews faces TEN, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. T.J. Hockenson faces MIA, the 9th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks T.J. Hockenson ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes T.J. Hockenson: a clear but modest edge of 8.0 points of value over replacement (-65.2 vs -73.2).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Mark Andrews first (ADP 133.0 vs 162.0). If the model is right, T.J. Hockenson is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| T.J. HockensonMIN | Mark AndrewsBAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | MIA | TEN | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 8.0 | 8.4 | Andrews +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #9 | #2 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 132.3 | 124.3 | Hockenson +8.0 pts |
| Points per game | 7.8 | 7.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -65.2 | -73.2 | Hockenson +8.0 |
| Overall rank | #148 | #159 | Hockenson by 11 |
| Position rank | TE21 | TE24 | |
| Market ADP | 162.0 | 133.0 | Hockenson +29.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 13 |
Should I start T.J. Hockenson or Mark Andrews in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mark Andrews by 0.4 projected points (8.4 vs 8.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft T.J. Hockenson or Mark Andrews in 2026 fantasy football?
T.J. Hockenson. He projects 132.3 fantasy points with -65.2 value over replacement, vs 124.3 points and -73.2 for Mark Andrews (TE, PPR).