Cade Otton vs T.J. Hockenson
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans T.J. Hockenson by 0.9 projected points (8.0 vs 7.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
T.J. Hockenson faces MIA, the 9th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Cade Otton faces GB, the 30th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Cade Otton ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Cade Otton by 4.8 points of value over replacement (-60.4 vs -65.2), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Cade OttonTAM | T.J. HockensonMIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | GB | MIA | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 7.2 | 8.0 | Hockenson +0.9 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #30 | #9 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 137.1 | 132.3 | Otton +4.8 pts |
| Points per game | 8.1 | 7.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -60.4 | -65.2 | Otton +4.8 |
| Overall rank | #140 | #148 | Otton by 8 |
| Position rank | TE20 | TE21 | |
| Market ADP | - | 162.0 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 6 |
Should I start Cade Otton or T.J. Hockenson in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans T.J. Hockenson by 0.9 projected points (8.0 vs 7.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Cade Otton or T.J. Hockenson in 2026 fantasy football?
Cade Otton. He projects 137.1 fantasy points with -60.4 value over replacement, vs 132.3 points and -65.2 for T.J. Hockenson (TE, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.