Marcus Mariota vs Malik Willis
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Marcus Mariota this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.5 projected points (11.4 vs 8.9).
Marcus Mariota faces IND, the 14th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Malik Willis faces MIN, the 31st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Marcus Mariota, and it isn't close: 18.0 points of value over replacement separate them (-75.5 vs -93.4).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Marcus MariotaWAS | Malik WillisMIA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | IND | MIN | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 11.4 | 8.9 | Mariota +2.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #14 | #31 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 193.3 | 175.3 | Mariota +18.0 pts |
| Points per game | 11.4 | 10.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -75.5 | -93.4 | Mariota +18.0 |
| Overall rank | #160 | #196 | Mariota by 36 |
| Position rank | QB30 | QB31 | |
| Market ADP | - | 161.8 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 6 |
Should I start Marcus Mariota or Malik Willis in Week 4?
Start Marcus Mariota this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.5 projected points (11.4 vs 8.9).
Should I draft Marcus Mariota or Malik Willis in 2026 fantasy football?
Marcus Mariota. He projects 193.3 fantasy points with -75.5 value over replacement, vs 175.3 points and -93.4 for Malik Willis (QB, PPR).