Jayden Daniels vs Marcus Mariota
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jayden Daniels by 0.5 projected points (11.8 vs 11.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Both face IND, the 14th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jayden Daniels: a clear but modest edge of 7.7 points of value over replacement (-67.8 vs -75.5).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
Health note: Jayden Daniels carries an injury flag of Questionable (Elbow), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Jayden DanielsWAS | Marcus MariotaWAS | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | IND | IND | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 11.8 | 11.4 | Daniels +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #14 | #14 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 201.0 | 193.3 | Daniels +7.7 pts |
| Points per game | 11.8 | 11.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -67.8 | -75.5 | Daniels +7.7 |
| Overall rank | #151 | #160 | Daniels by 9 |
| Position rank | QB29 | QB30 | |
| Market ADP | 75.2 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | - | |
| Bye week | 7 | 7 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I start Jayden Daniels or Marcus Mariota in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jayden Daniels by 0.5 projected points (11.8 vs 11.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jayden Daniels or Marcus Mariota in 2026 fantasy football?
Jayden Daniels. He projects 201.0 fantasy points with -67.8 value over replacement, vs 193.3 points and -75.5 for Marcus Mariota (QB, PPR).