T.J. Hockenson vs Kyle Pitts
Who should you start in Week 10? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 10
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Kyle Pitts by 0.2 projected points (9.1 vs 8.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Kyle Pitts faces KC, the 15th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. T.J. Hockenson faces GB, the 23rd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks T.J. Hockenson ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 10, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes T.J. Hockenson: a clear but modest edge of 9.1 points of value over replacement (-15.9 vs -25.0).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Kyle Pitts first (ADP 80.8 vs 162.0). If the model is right, T.J. Hockenson is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: T.J. Hockenson carries an injury flag of Questionable (Wrist), which is already reflected in his projection.
| T.J. HockensonMIN | Kyle PittsATL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 opponent | GB | KC | |
| Projected Week 10 points | 8.9 | 9.1 | Pitts +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 28) | #23 | #15 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 161.2 | 152.1 | Hockenson +9.1 pts |
| Points per game | 9.5 | 8.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -15.9 | -25.0 | Hockenson +9.1 |
| Overall rank | #90 | #103 | Hockenson by 13 |
| Position rank | TE13 | TE16 | |
| Market ADP | 162.0 | 80.8 | Hockenson +81.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 11 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I start T.J. Hockenson or Kyle Pitts in Week 10?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Kyle Pitts by 0.2 projected points (9.1 vs 8.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft T.J. Hockenson or Kyle Pitts in 2026 fantasy football?
T.J. Hockenson. He projects 161.2 fantasy points with -15.9 value over replacement, vs 152.1 points and -25.0 for Kyle Pitts (TE, PPR).