Tyler Allgeier vs Kaelon Black
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Tyler Allgeier by 0.2 projected points (3.9 vs 3.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Tyler Allgeier faces SF, the 24th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Kaelon Black faces ARI, the 6th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Tyler Allgeier: a clear but modest edge of 11.6 points of value over replacement (-65.7 vs -77.4).
The draft market agrees: Tyler Allgeier goes first at ADP 154.9 vs 166.2 for Kaelon Black.
| Tyler AllgeierARI | Kaelon BlackSFO | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | SF | ARI | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 3.9 | 3.8 | Allgeier +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #24 | #6 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 70.8 | 59.2 | Allgeier +11.6 pts |
| Points per game | 4.2 | 3.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -65.7 | -77.4 | Allgeier +11.6 |
| Overall rank | #145 | #155 | Allgeier by 10 |
| Position rank | RB46 | RB48 | |
| Market ADP | 154.9 | 166.2 | Black +11.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 14 | 8 |
Should I start Tyler Allgeier or Kaelon Black in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Tyler Allgeier by 0.2 projected points (3.9 vs 3.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Tyler Allgeier or Kaelon Black in 2026 fantasy football?
Tyler Allgeier. He projects 70.8 fantasy points with -65.7 value over replacement, vs 59.2 points and -77.4 for Kaelon Black (RB, PPR).