Chris Rodriguez vs Kaelon Black
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Chris Rodriguez by 0.6 projected points (4.3 vs 3.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Chris Rodriguez faces NE, the 14th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Kaelon Black faces ARI, the 6th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Chris Rodriguez: a clear but modest edge of 12.9 points of value over replacement (-64.4 vs -77.4).
The draft market agrees: Chris Rodriguez goes first at ADP 156.3 vs 166.2 for Kaelon Black.
| Chris RodriguezJAX | Kaelon BlackSFO | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | NE | ARI | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 4.3 | 3.8 | Rodriguez +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #14 | #6 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 72.1 | 59.2 | Rodriguez +12.9 pts |
| Points per game | 4.2 | 3.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -64.4 | -77.4 | Rodriguez +12.9 |
| Overall rank | #142 | #155 | Rodriguez by 13 |
| Position rank | RB45 | RB48 | |
| Market ADP | 156.3 | 166.2 | Black +9.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 8 |
Should I start Chris Rodriguez or Kaelon Black in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Chris Rodriguez by 0.6 projected points (4.3 vs 3.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Chris Rodriguez or Kaelon Black in 2026 fantasy football?
Chris Rodriguez. He projects 72.1 fantasy points with -64.4 value over replacement, vs 59.2 points and -77.4 for Kaelon Black (RB, PPR).