Juwan Johnson vs Travis Kelce
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Travis Kelce this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (14.9 vs 13.6).
Travis Kelce faces LV, the 6th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Juwan Johnson faces ATL, the 27th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Juwan Johnson ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Juwan Johnson: a clear but modest edge of 11.5 points of value over replacement (49.0 vs 37.6).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Travis Kelce first (ADP 108.5 vs 154.5). If the model is right, Juwan Johnson is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Juwan JohnsonNOR | Travis KelceKAN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | ATL | LV | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 13.6 | 14.9 | Kelce +1.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #27 | #6 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 246.6 | 235.1 | Johnson +11.5 pts |
| Points per game | 14.5 | 13.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 49.0 | 37.6 | Johnson +11.5 |
| Overall rank | #33 | #41 | Johnson by 8 |
| Position rank | TE4 | TE5 | |
| Market ADP | 154.5 | 108.5 | Johnson +46.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 5 |
Should I start Juwan Johnson or Travis Kelce in Week 4?
Start Travis Kelce this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (14.9 vs 13.6).
Should I draft Juwan Johnson or Travis Kelce in 2026 fantasy football?
Juwan Johnson. He projects 246.6 fantasy points with 49.0 value over replacement, vs 235.1 points and 37.6 for Travis Kelce (TE, PPR).