Quentin Johnston vs Josh Downs
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The call
The model takes Quentin Johnston: a clear but modest edge of 7.7 points of value over replacement (-24.6 vs -32.2).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Josh Downs first (ADP 87.7 vs 97.4). If the model is right, Quentin Johnston is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Josh Downs carries an injury flag of Questionable (Undisclosed), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Quentin JohnstonLAC | Josh DownsIND | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 155.7 | 148.0 | Johnston +7.7 pts |
| Points per game | 9.2 | 8.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -24.6 | -32.2 | Johnston +7.7 |
| Overall rank | #104 | #111 | Johnston by 7 |
| Position rank | WR39 | WR42 | |
| Market ADP | 97.4 | 87.7 | Johnston +9.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 13 | |
| Injury flag | None | Questionable |
Should I draft Quentin Johnston or Josh Downs in 2026 fantasy football?
Quentin Johnston. He projects 155.7 fantasy points with -24.6 value over replacement, vs 148.0 points and -32.2 for Josh Downs (WR, PPR).