Josh Downs vs Quentin Johnston
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Josh Downs this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.6 projected points (9.5 vs 7.9).
Josh Downs faces PIT, the 6th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Quentin Johnston faces DEN, the 28th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Josh Downs by 4.7 points of value over replacement (-28.3 vs -32.9), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Quentin Johnston first (ADP 91.1 vs 94.8). If the model is right, Josh Downs is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Quentin Johnston carries an injury flag of Out (Chest), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Josh DownsIND | Quentin JohnstonLAC | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | PIT | DEN | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 9.5 | 7.9 | Downs +1.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 30) | #6 | #28 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 150.2 | 145.5 | Downs +4.7 pts |
| Points per game | 8.8 | 8.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -28.3 | -32.9 | Downs +4.7 |
| Overall rank | #103 | #108 | Downs by 5 |
| Position rank | WR42 | WR45 | |
| Market ADP | 94.8 | 91.1 | Downs +3.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 7 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Josh Downs or Quentin Johnston in Week 5?
Start Josh Downs this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.6 projected points (9.5 vs 7.9).
Should I draft Josh Downs or Quentin Johnston in 2026 fantasy football?
Josh Downs. He projects 150.2 fantasy points with -28.3 value over replacement, vs 145.5 points and -32.9 for Quentin Johnston (WR, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.