Josh Downs vs Makai Lemon
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Josh Downs by 0.6 projected points (9.1 vs 8.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Josh Downs faces HOU, the 10th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Makai Lemon faces CHI, the 18th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Josh Downs by 2.7 points of value over replacement (-30.1 vs -32.8), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Josh Downs goes first at ADP 94.8 vs 131.2 for Makai Lemon.
| Josh DownsIND | Makai LemonPHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | HOU | CHI | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 9.1 | 8.5 | Downs +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #10 | #18 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 148.3 | 145.6 | Downs +2.7 pts |
| Points per game | 8.7 | 8.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -30.1 | -32.8 | Downs +2.7 |
| Overall rank | #105 | #106 | Downs by 1 |
| Position rank | WR43 | WR44 | |
| Market ADP | 94.8 | 131.2 | Lemon +36.4 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 11 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 10 |
Should I start Josh Downs or Makai Lemon in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Josh Downs by 0.6 projected points (9.1 vs 8.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Josh Downs or Makai Lemon in 2026 fantasy football?
Josh Downs. He projects 148.3 fantasy points with -30.1 value over replacement, vs 145.6 points and -32.8 for Makai Lemon (WR, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.