Josh Downs vs Khalil Shakir
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Khalil Shakir by 0.4 projected points (9.5 vs 9.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Khalil Shakir faces LAC, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Josh Downs faces HOU, the 10th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Josh Downs ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Josh Downs by 5.0 points of value over replacement (-30.1 vs -35.1), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Josh Downs goes first at ADP 94.8 vs 98.9 for Khalil Shakir.
| Josh DownsIND | Khalil ShakirBUF | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | HOU | LAC | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 9.1 | 9.5 | Shakir +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #10 | #2 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 148.3 | 143.4 | Downs +5.0 pts |
| Points per game | 8.7 | 8.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -30.1 | -35.1 | Downs +5.0 |
| Overall rank | #105 | #109 | Downs by 4 |
| Position rank | WR43 | WR45 | |
| Market ADP | 94.8 | 98.9 | Shakir +4.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 7 |
Should I start Josh Downs or Khalil Shakir in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Khalil Shakir by 0.4 projected points (9.5 vs 9.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Josh Downs or Khalil Shakir in 2026 fantasy football?
Josh Downs. He projects 148.3 fantasy points with -30.1 value over replacement, vs 143.4 points and -35.1 for Khalil Shakir (WR, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.