Carnell Tate vs Josh Downs
Who should you start in Week 10? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 10
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Josh Downs by 0.3 projected points (9.5 vs 9.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Josh Downs faces ATL, the 4th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Carnell Tate faces JAX, the 14th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Carnell Tate ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 10, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Carnell Tate: a clear but modest edge of 9.6 points of value over replacement (-21.6 vs -31.2).
The draft market agrees: Carnell Tate goes first at ADP 79.9 vs 94.8 for Josh Downs.
Health note: Carnell Tate carries an injury flag of Questionable (Shoulder), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Carnell TateTEN | Josh DownsKAN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 opponent | JAX | ATL | |
| Projected Week 10 points | 9.2 | 9.5 | Downs +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 28) | #14 | #4 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 155.5 | 145.9 | Tate +9.6 pts |
| Points per game | 9.1 | 8.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -21.6 | -31.2 | Tate +9.6 |
| Overall rank | #96 | #111 | Tate by 15 |
| Position rank | WR35 | WR38 | |
| Market ADP | 79.9 | 94.8 | Downs +14.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 5 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I start Carnell Tate or Josh Downs in Week 10?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Josh Downs by 0.3 projected points (9.5 vs 9.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Carnell Tate or Josh Downs in 2026 fantasy football?
Carnell Tate. He projects 155.5 fantasy points with -21.6 value over replacement, vs 145.9 points and -31.2 for Josh Downs (WR, PPR).