Josh Downs vs Xavier Worthy
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Josh Downs by 0.2 projected points (9.1 vs 8.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Josh Downs faces HOU, the 10th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Xavier Worthy faces MIA, the 8th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Josh Downs: a clear but modest edge of 6.5 points of value over replacement (-30.1 vs -36.6).
The draft market agrees: Josh Downs goes first at ADP 94.8 vs 107.3 for Xavier Worthy.
| Josh DownsIND | Xavier WorthyKAN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | HOU | MIA | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 9.1 | 8.9 | Downs +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #10 | #8 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 148.3 | 141.9 | Downs +6.5 pts |
| Points per game | 8.7 | 8.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -30.1 | -36.6 | Downs +6.5 |
| Overall rank | #105 | #111 | Downs by 6 |
| Position rank | WR43 | WR46 | |
| Market ADP | 94.8 | 107.3 | Worthy +12.5 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 5 |
Should I start Josh Downs or Xavier Worthy in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Josh Downs by 0.2 projected points (9.1 vs 8.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Josh Downs or Xavier Worthy in 2026 fantasy football?
Josh Downs. He projects 148.3 fantasy points with -30.1 value over replacement, vs 141.9 points and -36.6 for Xavier Worthy (WR, PPR).