Matthew Stafford vs Joe Burrow
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Matthew Stafford by 0.1 projected points (18.5 vs 18.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Matthew Stafford faces BUF, the 12th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Joe Burrow faces MIA, the 8th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Matthew Stafford: a clear but modest edge of 10.5 points of value over replacement (20.2 vs 9.7).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Joe Burrow first (ADP 54.5 vs 74.2). If the model is right, Matthew Stafford is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Matthew StaffordLAR | Joe BurrowCIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | BUF | MIA | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 18.5 | 18.3 | Stafford +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #12 | #8 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 305.4 | 294.9 | Stafford +10.5 pts |
| Points per game | 18.0 | 17.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 20.2 | 9.7 | Stafford +10.5 |
| Overall rank | #49 | #62 | Stafford by 13 |
| Position rank | QB7 | QB10 | |
| Market ADP | 74.2 | 54.5 | Stafford +19.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 6 |
Should I start Matthew Stafford or Joe Burrow in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Matthew Stafford by 0.1 projected points (18.5 vs 18.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Matthew Stafford or Joe Burrow in 2026 fantasy football?
Matthew Stafford. He projects 305.4 fantasy points with 20.2 value over replacement, vs 294.9 points and 9.7 for Joe Burrow (QB, PPR).