Caleb Williams vs Matthew Stafford
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Caleb Williams by 3.3 points of value over replacement (33.6 vs 30.3), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Matthew Stafford first (ADP 77.1 vs 90.2). If the model is right, Caleb Williams is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | Matthew StaffordLAR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 285.4 | 282.1 | Williams +3.3 pts |
| Points per game | 16.8 | 16.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 33.6 | 30.3 | Williams +3.3 |
| Overall rank | #43 | #46 | Williams by 3 |
| Position rank | QB7 | QB8 | |
| Market ADP | 90.2 | 77.1 | Williams +13.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 11 |
Should I draft Caleb Williams or Matthew Stafford in 2026 fantasy football?
Caleb Williams. He projects 285.4 fantasy points with 33.6 value over replacement, vs 282.1 points and 30.3 for Matthew Stafford (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.