Josh Downs vs Jayden Reed
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Josh Downs this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (9.7 vs 8.2).
Josh Downs faces WAS, the 6th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Jayden Reed faces TB, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Josh Downs: a clear but modest edge of 6.0 points of value over replacement (-30.1 vs -36.1).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Jayden Reed first (ADP 88.4 vs 94.8). If the model is right, Josh Downs is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Jayden Reed carries an injury flag of Out (Neck), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Josh DownsIND | Jayden ReedGNB | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | WAS | TB | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 9.7 | 8.2 | Downs +1.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #6 | #22 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 150.2 | 144.2 | Downs +6.0 pts |
| Points per game | 8.8 | 8.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -30.1 | -36.1 | Downs +6.0 |
| Overall rank | #104 | #109 | Downs by 5 |
| Position rank | WR43 | WR46 | |
| Market ADP | 94.8 | 88.4 | Downs +6.4 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 11 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Josh Downs or Jayden Reed in Week 4?
Start Josh Downs this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (9.7 vs 8.2).
Should I draft Josh Downs or Jayden Reed in 2026 fantasy football?
Josh Downs. He projects 150.2 fantasy points with -30.1 value over replacement, vs 144.2 points and -36.1 for Jayden Reed (WR, PPR).