Jalen Hurts vs Trevor Lawrence
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
Start Jalen Hurts this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (18.6 vs 17.4).
Jalen Hurts faces CHI, the 16th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Trevor Lawrence faces NE, the 11th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jalen Hurts, and it isn't close: 28.3 points of value over replacement separate them (44.5 vs 16.3).
The draft market agrees: Jalen Hurts goes first at ADP 75.9 vs 91.1 for Trevor Lawrence.
| Jalen HurtsPHI | Trevor LawrenceJAX | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | CHI | NE | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 18.6 | 17.4 | Hurts +1.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #16 | #11 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 316.5 | 288.2 | Hurts +28.3 pts |
| Points per game | 18.6 | 17.0 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 44.5 | 16.3 | Hurts +28.3 |
| Overall rank | #39 | #56 | Hurts by 17 |
| Position rank | QB6 | QB9 | |
| Market ADP | 75.9 | 91.1 | Lawrence +15.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 7 |
Should I start Jalen Hurts or Trevor Lawrence in Week 3?
Start Jalen Hurts this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (18.6 vs 17.4).
Should I draft Jalen Hurts or Trevor Lawrence in 2026 fantasy football?
Jalen Hurts. He projects 316.5 fantasy points with 44.5 value over replacement, vs 288.2 points and 16.3 for Trevor Lawrence (QB, PPR).