Tucker Kraft vs Jake Ferguson
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jake Ferguson by 0.9 projected points (11.8 vs 10.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jake Ferguson faces TB, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Tucker Kraft faces CHI, the 12th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Tucker Kraft ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Tucker Kraft by 4.0 points of value over replacement (-8.1 vs -12.0), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Tucker Kraft goes first at ADP 105.7 vs 137.4 for Jake Ferguson.
| Tucker KraftGNB | Jake FergusonDAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | CHI | TB | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 10.9 | 11.8 | Ferguson +0.9 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 30) | #12 | #3 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 183.9 | 179.9 | Kraft +4.0 pts |
| Points per game | 10.8 | 10.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -8.1 | -12.0 | Kraft +4.0 |
| Overall rank | #77 | #81 | Kraft by 4 |
| Position rank | TE10 | TE11 | |
| Market ADP | 105.7 | 137.4 | Ferguson +31.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 14 |
Should I start Tucker Kraft or Jake Ferguson in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jake Ferguson by 0.9 projected points (11.8 vs 10.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Tucker Kraft or Jake Ferguson in 2026 fantasy football?
Tucker Kraft. He projects 183.9 fantasy points with -8.1 value over replacement, vs 179.9 points and -12.0 for Jake Ferguson (TE, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.