Tyler Warren vs Jake Ferguson
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jake Ferguson by 0.8 projected points (13.4 vs 12.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jake Ferguson faces HOU, the 4th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Tyler Warren faces WAS, the 18th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Tyler Warren ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Tyler Warren, and it isn't close: 15.1 points of value over replacement separate them (19.0 vs 3.9).
The draft market agrees: Tyler Warren goes first at ADP 66.1 vs 137.4 for Jake Ferguson.
| Tyler WarrenIND | Jake FergusonDAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | WAS | HOU | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 12.5 | 13.4 | Ferguson +0.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #18 | #4 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 216.5 | 201.4 | Warren +15.1 pts |
| Points per game | 12.7 | 11.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 19.0 | 3.9 | Warren +15.1 |
| Overall rank | #49 | #65 | Warren by 16 |
| Position rank | TE6 | TE9 | |
| Market ADP | 66.1 | 137.4 | Ferguson +71.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 6 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 14 |
Should I start Tyler Warren or Jake Ferguson in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jake Ferguson by 0.8 projected points (13.4 vs 12.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Tyler Warren or Jake Ferguson in 2026 fantasy football?
Tyler Warren. He projects 216.5 fantasy points with 19.0 value over replacement, vs 201.4 points and 3.9 for Jake Ferguson (TE, PPR).