Travis Kelce vs Tyler Warren
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Travis Kelce this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.4 projected points (14.9 vs 12.5).
Travis Kelce faces LV, the 6th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Tyler Warren faces WAS, the 18th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Travis Kelce, and it isn't close: 18.5 points of value over replacement separate them (37.6 vs 19.0).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Tyler Warren first (ADP 66.1 vs 108.5). If the model is right, Travis Kelce is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Travis KelceKAN | Tyler WarrenIND | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | LV | WAS | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 14.9 | 12.5 | Kelce +2.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #6 | #18 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 235.1 | 216.5 | Kelce +18.5 pts |
| Points per game | 13.8 | 12.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 37.6 | 19.0 | Kelce +18.5 |
| Overall rank | #41 | #49 | Kelce by 8 |
| Position rank | TE5 | TE6 | |
| Market ADP | 108.5 | 66.1 | Kelce +42.4 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 6 | |
| Bye week | 5 | 13 |
Should I start Travis Kelce or Tyler Warren in Week 4?
Start Travis Kelce this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.4 projected points (14.9 vs 12.5).
Should I draft Travis Kelce or Tyler Warren in 2026 fantasy football?
Travis Kelce. He projects 235.1 fantasy points with 37.6 value over replacement, vs 216.5 points and 19.0 for Tyler Warren (TE, PPR).