Harold Fannin vs Jake Ferguson
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Jake Ferguson this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.3 projected points (13.4 vs 11.1).
Jake Ferguson faces HOU, the 4th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Harold Fannin faces PIT, the 29th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Harold Fannin ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Harold Fannin: a clear but modest edge of 6.6 points of value over replacement (10.5 vs 3.9).
The draft market agrees: Harold Fannin goes first at ADP 74.9 vs 137.4 for Jake Ferguson.
| Harold FanninCLE | Jake FergusonDAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | PIT | HOU | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 11.1 | 13.4 | Ferguson +2.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #29 | #4 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 208.0 | 201.4 | Fannin +6.6 pts |
| Points per game | 12.2 | 11.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 10.5 | 3.9 | Fannin +6.6 |
| Overall rank | #59 | #65 | Fannin by 6 |
| Position rank | TE7 | TE9 | |
| Market ADP | 74.9 | 137.4 | Ferguson +62.5 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 14 |
Should I start Harold Fannin or Jake Ferguson in Week 4?
Start Jake Ferguson this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.3 projected points (13.4 vs 11.1).
Should I draft Harold Fannin or Jake Ferguson in 2026 fantasy football?
Harold Fannin. He projects 208.0 fantasy points with 10.5 value over replacement, vs 201.4 points and 3.9 for Jake Ferguson (TE, PPR).