Ja'Marr Chase vs Justin Jefferson
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Ja'Marr Chase this week: a clear but modest edge of 3.0 projected points (21.3 vs 18.3).
Ja'Marr Chase faces JAX, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Justin Jefferson faces MIA, the 9th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Ja'Marr Chase, and it isn't close: 31.0 points of value over replacement separate them (145.2 vs 114.2).
The draft market agrees: Ja'Marr Chase goes first at ADP 3.7 vs 11.8 for Justin Jefferson.
Health note: Justin Jefferson carries an injury flag of Out (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Ja'Marr ChaseCIN | Justin JeffersonMIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | JAX | MIA | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 21.3 | 18.3 | Chase +3.0 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #3 | #9 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 325.5 | 294.5 | Chase +31.0 pts |
| Points per game | 19.1 | 17.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 145.2 | 114.2 | Chase +31.0 |
| Overall rank | #6 | #11 | Chase by 5 |
| Position rank | WR2 | WR4 | |
| Market ADP | 3.7 | 11.8 | Jefferson +8.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 1 | Rd 1 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 6 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Ja'Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson in Week 4?
Start Ja'Marr Chase this week: a clear but modest edge of 3.0 projected points (21.3 vs 18.3).
Should I draft Ja'Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson in 2026 fantasy football?
Ja'Marr Chase. He projects 325.5 fantasy points with 145.2 value over replacement, vs 294.5 points and 114.2 for Justin Jefferson (WR, PPR).