Ja'Marr Chase vs Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Ja'Marr Chase this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.7 projected points (19.6 vs 17.9).
Ja'Marr Chase faces MIA, the 14th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces SF, the 17th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Ja'Marr Chase, and it isn't close: 26.5 points of value over replacement separate them (147.5 vs 121.0).
The draft market agrees: Ja'Marr Chase goes first at ADP 3.7 vs 5.9 for Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Health note: Ja'Marr Chase carries an injury flag of Questionable (Concussion), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Ja'Marr ChaseCIN | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | MIA | SF | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 19.6 | 17.9 | Chase +1.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 30) | #14 | #17 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 325.5 | 299.0 | Chase +26.5 pts |
| Points per game | 19.1 | 17.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 147.5 | 121.0 | Chase +26.5 |
| Overall rank | #5 | #9 | Chase by 4 |
| Position rank | WR1 | WR3 | |
| Market ADP | 3.7 | 5.9 | Smith-Njigba +2.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 1 | Rd 1 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 11 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I start Ja'Marr Chase or Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 5?
Start Ja'Marr Chase this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.7 projected points (19.6 vs 17.9).
Should I draft Ja'Marr Chase or Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2026 fantasy football?
Ja'Marr Chase. He projects 325.5 fantasy points with 147.5 value over replacement, vs 299.0 points and 121.0 for Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, PPR).